Lying Science--More on Audubon & SELC

If the Southern Environmental Legal Center's Derb Carter or the NC Audubon's Chris Canfield were to assume the identity of Pinocchio, their noses would arrive at a press conference fifteen minutes ahead of their bodies.

As an avid birdwatcher, I've been to many Audubon parks, purchased their field guides, and for a long period of time, I was a member. Like many people, my impression of Audubon came mainly from sources that depicted the organization as benign; more conservationist than environmentally radical and prone to litigiousness. Most of us probably receive mailings from them containing cute little address labels and such, begging for donations.

Don't do it. And, even though what follows is long, if you really care about the ORV issue, please read the entire post and utilize the links.

The following is a quote from the Audubon's North Carolina Director, which appears on WRAL's website in Raleigh: (thanks to the Sentinel for pointing out this article)...

“I know there are individuals and businesses out there that have been affected and I'm sorry for that,” said Chris Canfield, director of Audubon North Carolina.

Canfield said statistics show the consent decree is working.

In 2007, four piping plover chicks and 10 oyster catcher chicks grew to adulthood on the National Seashore. In 2009, those numbers grew to six and 13.

Canfield said black skimmers have also nested on the beach for the first time in three years.

“We have more than doubled the number of beach nest birds that have come together on the beach, record numbers of sea turtles,” Canfield said.

And, here is a quote from the Master Blaster of spin, the Southern Environmental Law Center's director Derb Carter.

Throughout the negotiated rulemaking meetings, we consistently offered balanced proposals that made reasonable concessions based on science, were consistent with the park’s legal requirements, and tried to accommodate the interests of other stakeholders. In fact, the negotiations ended with our most recent proposal still on the table.

Really? Let's look at some data from Derb's own website. Here is the link, so you can check my observations:

http://www.southernenvironment.org/uploads/fck/file/hatteras_beach_driving/bar%20graphs%202008%20data-permitted%20photos-final.pdf

Note how both Carter and the Audubon's Canfield select their data when speaking to the media. First, they both leave out historical data streams. Strangely, the 2009 numbers are worse than the 2008 numbers in most of the observed species (see those results below) even though the ORV ban was in force for the entire 2009 breeding season. I can give Derb a pass since his quote was from early 2009, but the Audubon spokesperson is, by now, aware of the 2009 data and chose to ignore it. While the drops were small, overall the ORV ban appears to have had zero impact on the bird and turtle nestings. Certainly not enough to claim "victory" or proclaim the species are "rebounding". Derb Carter is beginning to sound like George Bush when he uttered "Mission Accomplished" in reference to Iraq. In reality, Canfield's quote involves an increase of three birds from 2007 to 2008. And a decrease of one bird under the full 2009 ORV ban.

Also note that Derb's own bar graphs are asymmetrical in their historic results....prior to the ORV ban species numbers exhibit wide variations, even though ORV's were always present. For example, turtle nestings were only around 40 in 2002, but rebounded significantly in 2005, 2006, an d 2007--periods where Derb argues ORV traffic continued to increase. And numbers were close to 100 in 1998 and 1999; years where ORV traffic was not significantly smaller than it was in 2005. Year to year differences, with or without ORV's are widely variable, a scientific fact Derb and Canflield ignore with impunity, and no sense of shame.

More interesting, turtle numbers were also significantly up on northern Dare beaches, where nests are almost always moved by the N.E.S.T. organization to higher ground, and where 10 x 10 enclosures coexist with pedestrians and beach goers all around. Even the hatchings are attended by tourists and eagerly anticipated.

American Oyster Catchers? 2009 was lower than 2008, and 2008 showed the same numbers as 2004, when ORV's were running rampant over the beach according to the Audubon and so reported in their nationally distributed magazine.

Piping Plovers are the most revealing. First, the chart is misleading since the raw numbers used are small, creating the visual impression that huge increases are taking place. In reality, the chart measures over ten years a range of fledged chicks from 0 to 14. Thus, an increase from say, 10 to 13 chicks appears significant on the graph, when in reality we are talking about three birds. In any event, piping plover numbers show a steady decline from 1992 to 2002, then a rebound from 2003 forward, all the while with ORV's present and closings to ORV's and pedestrians non-existent in relative terms. Again, 2009 saw a decline.

Thus, when Derb claims as quoted above, that SELC and their allies are using "science" to justify their positions, they lie. Not only is the historical data inconclusive, no real scientist would use a data stream covering one year (the difference in 2007 and 2008). Given the pre-ORV diversity in the numbers cited for the affected species, the 2008 increases are statistically insignificant.

Further, no real scientist would exclude historical data and omit measurements of standard deviations and means in the data range--things even a college freshman learns in introductory statistics courses. Nor does science leave out the concept of controls and control groups. These measurements tell us, over time, what the expected normal range of species breeding success would be, what constitutes an outlier, and how one can determine if a trend is significant, ongoing, or simply within the random movement of the norm. And controls are always needed to evaluate the success of any scientific observation. In nature, animal species often experience localized and range-wide deviations in breeding success. For example, what if plovers experienced breeding success across their range in 2008? What about turtles? If they did, it would be impossible to claim the ORV ban contributed to the slight increases in 2008. Also, in periods of decline, such as 2002 for the Hatteras population of Piping Plovers, what were the results in other areas of the birds breeding range; especially areas where ORV traffic was never present. If the declines occurred across the breeding range, than the presence of ORV's cannot be the primary factor affecting the bird's success rate in mating or fledgling numbers.

Here are some 2009 numbers to contemplate when we, as taxpayers and residents consider the revenues lost, the tourists inconvenienced, the legal expenses billed to taxpayers.

Cape Hatteras National Seashore Resource Management Reports 2008 & 2009 thru 8/7/2009 (Summaries)
PipiPiping Plover (PIPL) Summary:
	Total Nests to Date	Total Pairs to Date	Active Nests	Total Nests Hatched	Total Nests Lost	Total Eggs	Total Eggs Hatched	Unfledged Chicks	Lost Chicks	Fledged Chicks
As of 8/7/2009	9	9	0	6	3	42	19	0	13	6
As of 08/6/2008	13	11	0	8	5	?	22	0	15	7
Full Year 2008	13	11	n\a	8	5	43	22	n\a	15	7
AmAmerican Oystercatchers (AMOY) Summary: (includes Green Island)
	Total Nests to Date	Active Nests	Nests Hatched	Nests Lost	Total Chicks Hatched	Unfledged Chicks	Chicks Lost	Fledged Chicks
As of 8/7/2009	31	0	15	16	31	2	17	12
As of 8/6/2008	32	0	13	19	24	2	7	15
Full Year 2008	32	n\a	13	19	24	0	7	17
SeaSea Turtle Summary:
	Nests	Digs	False Crawls		Ratio of False Crawls to Nests
As of 8/7/2009	95	0	98		1.03:1
As of 8/6/2008	101	1	92		0.91:1
Full Year 2008	112	0	103		.92:1
	Source is page 6 of CHNS 2008 Sea Turtle Annual Report

And, your odds if a wild predator (note "removal" can and often does mean "killed")

Cape Hatteras National Seashore Recreational Area Predator Removal
	2002-2007	2007
	Wildlife	NPS Resource
	Services	Mgt. Staff		2008		2009	Totals
Species
Feral Dog	1	0		0			1
Feral Cat	26	38		53			117
Raccoon	133	101		77			311
Mink	0	1		31			32
Opossum	46	57		60			163
Muskrat	0	1		1			2
Otter	0	2		5			7
Grey Fox	30	3		6			39
Red Fox	70	6		9			85
Nutria	0	23		49			72
Totals	305	232		291		?	828
Source: 2007 & 2008 CHNS Piping Plover annual reports