Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Dare County--How Others Think We Should Live
Carolina Birds is "listserv" thread that serves NC and SC birdwatchers. It is one of Derb Carter's favorite posting areas, not only for his bird sightings, but as a place to espouse his environmental point of view. Recent discussions there have revolved around the ORV issue and today someone broached the subject of the Bonner (Oregon Inlet) Bridge. Here is a sampling of what some birders feel about our area and how their opinions most likely filter up through their elected officials and interest groups such as the Audubon Society. I present them unedited except for the removal of some words for the sake of brevity. Bottom line--they want us out of here, care more about the environment here than in their own towns (where I assume they live in houses, drive cars, and reside in a place that 1,000 years ago was inhabited by wildlife that eventually was, er, displaced by their presence?? Or maybe not. Perhaps Raleigh was capital of the Caveman Nation, housing millions of nature loving cavemen living in harmony with Red Wolves...)
Gotta love it.
To make a correction, Pea Island has served as a refuge for wildlife far longer than man has ever been on the island! This area should always be allowed to perform this most important function, whether there are man-made inpoundments or not. It is ignorant to say things like "let the birds go someplace else" or "build the refuge somewhere else." We have got to learn to work around the wildlife, not visa versa.
We may have our own ideas about who we can trust and believe when dealing with such important issues as this - but one thing is for certain - you cannot trust those who merely have a financial interest in any given issue. Money warps good judgement. I for one certainly trust our scientists and wildlife biologists and the organizations that are dedicated to speaking up on behalf of wildlife far more than I would ever trust people that are either trying to increase the local tax base or are just out to make a buck.
Bottom line - There is absolutely nothing more important than protecting the environment and the wildlife that inhabit this planet! No, not even "making a living"! People have got to stop selling out nature in the name of so-called "progress." Does everything always have to be about money - it makes me sick!!!!!
Jeff Lewis
Howdy!
It's been a while since I've posted to Carolinabirds (which I really
love and appreciate--thanks Will!!), but first I wanted to say,
YEAH JEFF!!!!!!!!!!!!! I agree!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (One more
exclamation point for Harry!)
Karen Bearden
Raleigh, NC
I respectfully disagree. Barrier islands along the Carolina coast are geologically unstable, shifting sands that are incompatible with permanent structures and associated human habitation. As geologist Oren Pilkey has taught us-it is a waste of taxpayer money to subsidize such structures by Federal programs such as flood insurance subsidies and tax supported programs to build the infrastructure needed to support homes and retail businesses in these areas. Better we return these beaches to the uses Nature intended, let them shift as they will (despite our puny efforts to "nourish" beaches and so on), and enjoy them with access from boats.
Steve Compton
Greenville,SC
Its really a shame that the NCDOT and Dare county decided to replace
the Bonner Bridge with the short version. Many, many studies showed
that this was the wrong course of action if North Carolina wants to
keep Pea Island in existence. I wrote a number of letters to
politicians and folks at the DOT in favor of the long bridge to no
avail.
I
guess we'll have to say good bye to Pea Island as we know it. And we
get a new Bonner Bridge, that will probably be safe for, oh, 10 years
by the time its all completed. Why does Dare County think building
bridges literally on shifting sand is a good permanent course of
action?
I understand that Outer Banks residents can't rely on
ferries and have to have a road to get to hospitals, veterinarians, and
other services. And I am sorry that your lives get disrupted when
storms come through. You must feel that it is worth it to live in such
a wild, beautiful place. And you must have known that this was the
price you pay when you moved there.
Becky D, Raleigh
Manteo, NC
Gotta love it.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Surprise, Surprise---Real Estate and Construction Are Important!
From CNBC today:
Wow! Who knew? I mean, besides the Board of Realtors, Homebuilders Associations, the Chamber of Commerce, the folks employed as sub-contractors, sales agents for hard goods that go into homes (dishwashers, ovens, HVAC units), landscapers, dump truck drivers, people who repair trucks, equipment rental companies, plant nurseries, furniture stores, restaurants, barber shops, jewelry stores, auto repair businesses, printers, web site designers, architects, engineers, and other folks who rely on well-paid construction and real estate workers as day-to-day clients, office supply stores, lawyers, insurance agents, school teachers who teach the kids of all of the above, tax collectors, county employees title insurance writers, CPA firms and conservative economists?
Feel free to leave a comment and add any business I left out...
As the economy emerges from a recession triggered by the housing market crisis, increasing home sales is viewed as essential. Housing and related business account for about 20 percent of the economy, and more sales means more spending on everything from dishwashers to energy-efficient windows.
Wow! Who knew? I mean, besides the Board of Realtors, Homebuilders Associations, the Chamber of Commerce, the folks employed as sub-contractors, sales agents for hard goods that go into homes (dishwashers, ovens, HVAC units), landscapers, dump truck drivers, people who repair trucks, equipment rental companies, plant nurseries, furniture stores, restaurants, barber shops, jewelry stores, auto repair businesses, printers, web site designers, architects, engineers, and other folks who rely on well-paid construction and real estate workers as day-to-day clients, office supply stores, lawyers, insurance agents, school teachers who teach the kids of all of the above, tax collectors, county employees title insurance writers, CPA firms and conservative economists?
Feel free to leave a comment and add any business I left out...
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Lying Science--More on Audubon & SELC
If the Southern Environmental Legal Center's Derb Carter or the NC Audubon's Chris Canfield were to assume the identity of Pinocchio, their noses would arrive at a press conference fifteen minutes ahead of their bodies.
As an avid birdwatcher, I've been to many Audubon parks, purchased their field guides, and for a long period of time, I was a member. Like many people, my impression of Audubon came mainly from sources that depicted the organization as benign; more conservationist than environmentally radical and prone to litigiousness. Most of us probably receive mailings from them containing cute little address labels and such, begging for donations.
Don't do it. And, even though what follows is long, if you really care about the ORV issue, please read the entire post and utilize the links.
The following is a quote from the Audubon's North Carolina Director, which appears on WRAL's website in Raleigh: (thanks to the Sentinel for pointing out this article)...
And, here is a quote from the Master Blaster of spin, the Southern Environmental Law Center's director Derb Carter.
Really? Let's look at some data from Derb's own website. Here is the link, so you can check my observations:
http://www.southernenvironment.org/uploads/fck/file/hatteras_beach_driving/bar%20graphs%202008%20data-permitted%20photos-final.pdf
Note how both Carter and the Audubon's Canfield select their data when speaking to the media. First, they both leave out historical data streams. Strangely, the 2009 numbers are worse than the 2008 numbers in most of the observed species (see those results below) even though the ORV ban was in force for the entire 2009 breeding season. I can give Derb a pass since his quote was from early 2009, but the Audubon spokesperson is, by now, aware of the 2009 data and chose to ignore it. While the drops were small, overall the ORV ban appears to have had zero impact on the bird and turtle nestings. Certainly not enough to claim "victory" or proclaim the species are "rebounding". Derb Carter is beginning to sound like George Bush when he uttered "Mission Accomplished" in reference to Iraq. In reality, Canfield's quote involves an increase of three birds from 2007 to 2008. And a decrease of one bird under the full 2009 ORV ban.
Also note that Derb's own bar graphs are asymmetrical in their historic results....prior to the ORV ban species numbers exhibit wide variations, even though ORV's were always present. For example, turtle nestings were only around 40 in 2002, but rebounded significantly in 2005, 2006, an d 2007--periods where Derb argues ORV traffic continued to increase. And numbers were close to 100 in 1998 and 1999; years where ORV traffic was not significantly smaller than it was in 2005. Year to year differences, with or without ORV's are widely variable, a scientific fact Derb and Canflield ignore with impunity, and no sense of shame.
More interesting, turtle numbers were also significantly up on northern Dare beaches, where nests are almost always moved by the N.E.S.T. organization to higher ground, and where 10 x 10 enclosures coexist with pedestrians and beach goers all around. Even the hatchings are attended by tourists and eagerly anticipated.
American Oyster Catchers? 2009 was lower than 2008, and 2008 showed the same numbers as 2004, when ORV's were running rampant over the beach according to the Audubon and so reported in their nationally distributed magazine.
Piping Plovers are the most revealing. First, the chart is misleading since the raw numbers used are small, creating the visual impression that huge increases are taking place. In reality, the chart measures over ten years a range of fledged chicks from 0 to 14. Thus, an increase from say, 10 to 13 chicks appears significant on the graph, when in reality we are talking about three birds. In any event, piping plover numbers show a steady decline from 1992 to 2002, then a rebound from 2003 forward, all the while with ORV's present and closings to ORV's and pedestrians non-existent in relative terms. Again, 2009 saw a decline.
Thus, when Derb claims as quoted above, that SELC and their allies are using "science" to justify their positions, they lie. Not only is the historical data inconclusive, no real scientist would use a data stream covering one year (the difference in 2007 and 2008). Given the pre-ORV diversity in the numbers cited for the affected species, the 2008 increases are statistically insignificant.
Further, no real scientist would exclude historical data and omit measurements of standard deviations and means in the data range--things even a college freshman learns in introductory statistics courses. Nor does science leave out the concept of controls and control groups. These measurements tell us, over time, what the expected normal range of species breeding success would be, what constitutes an outlier, and how one can determine if a trend is significant, ongoing, or simply within the random movement of the norm. And controls are always needed to evaluate the success of any scientific observation. In nature, animal species often experience localized and range-wide deviations in breeding success. For example, what if plovers experienced breeding success across their range in 2008? What about turtles? If they did, it would be impossible to claim the ORV ban contributed to the slight increases in 2008. Also, in periods of decline, such as 2002 for the Hatteras population of Piping Plovers, what were the results in other areas of the birds breeding range; especially areas where ORV traffic was never present. If the declines occurred across the breeding range, than the presence of ORV's cannot be the primary factor affecting the bird's success rate in mating or fledgling numbers.
Here are some 2009 numbers to contemplate when we, as taxpayers and residents consider the revenues lost, the tourists inconvenienced, the legal expenses billed to taxpayers.
And, your odds if a wild predator (note "removal" can and often does mean "killed")
As an avid birdwatcher, I've been to many Audubon parks, purchased their field guides, and for a long period of time, I was a member. Like many people, my impression of Audubon came mainly from sources that depicted the organization as benign; more conservationist than environmentally radical and prone to litigiousness. Most of us probably receive mailings from them containing cute little address labels and such, begging for donations.
Don't do it. And, even though what follows is long, if you really care about the ORV issue, please read the entire post and utilize the links.
The following is a quote from the Audubon's North Carolina Director, which appears on WRAL's website in Raleigh: (thanks to the Sentinel for pointing out this article)...
“I know there are individuals and businesses out there that have been affected and I'm sorry for that,” said Chris Canfield, director of Audubon North Carolina.
Canfield said statistics show the consent decree is working.
In 2007, four piping plover chicks and 10 oyster catcher chicks grew to adulthood on the National Seashore. In 2009, those numbers grew to six and 13.
Canfield said black skimmers have also nested on the beach for the first time in three years.
“We have more than doubled the number of beach nest birds that have come together on the beach, record numbers of sea turtles,” Canfield said.
And, here is a quote from the Master Blaster of spin, the Southern Environmental Law Center's director Derb Carter.
Throughout the negotiated rulemaking meetings, we consistently offered balanced proposals that made reasonable concessions based on science, were consistent with the park’s legal requirements, and tried to accommodate the interests of other stakeholders. In fact, the negotiations ended with our most recent proposal still on the table.
Really? Let's look at some data from Derb's own website. Here is the link, so you can check my observations:
http://www.southernenvironment.org/uploads/fck/file/hatteras_beach_driving/bar%20graphs%202008%20data-permitted%20photos-final.pdf
Note how both Carter and the Audubon's Canfield select their data when speaking to the media. First, they both leave out historical data streams. Strangely, the 2009 numbers are worse than the 2008 numbers in most of the observed species (see those results below) even though the ORV ban was in force for the entire 2009 breeding season. I can give Derb a pass since his quote was from early 2009, but the Audubon spokesperson is, by now, aware of the 2009 data and chose to ignore it. While the drops were small, overall the ORV ban appears to have had zero impact on the bird and turtle nestings. Certainly not enough to claim "victory" or proclaim the species are "rebounding". Derb Carter is beginning to sound like George Bush when he uttered "Mission Accomplished" in reference to Iraq. In reality, Canfield's quote involves an increase of three birds from 2007 to 2008. And a decrease of one bird under the full 2009 ORV ban.
Also note that Derb's own bar graphs are asymmetrical in their historic results....prior to the ORV ban species numbers exhibit wide variations, even though ORV's were always present. For example, turtle nestings were only around 40 in 2002, but rebounded significantly in 2005, 2006, an d 2007--periods where Derb argues ORV traffic continued to increase. And numbers were close to 100 in 1998 and 1999; years where ORV traffic was not significantly smaller than it was in 2005. Year to year differences, with or without ORV's are widely variable, a scientific fact Derb and Canflield ignore with impunity, and no sense of shame.
More interesting, turtle numbers were also significantly up on northern Dare beaches, where nests are almost always moved by the N.E.S.T. organization to higher ground, and where 10 x 10 enclosures coexist with pedestrians and beach goers all around. Even the hatchings are attended by tourists and eagerly anticipated.
American Oyster Catchers? 2009 was lower than 2008, and 2008 showed the same numbers as 2004, when ORV's were running rampant over the beach according to the Audubon and so reported in their nationally distributed magazine.
Piping Plovers are the most revealing. First, the chart is misleading since the raw numbers used are small, creating the visual impression that huge increases are taking place. In reality, the chart measures over ten years a range of fledged chicks from 0 to 14. Thus, an increase from say, 10 to 13 chicks appears significant on the graph, when in reality we are talking about three birds. In any event, piping plover numbers show a steady decline from 1992 to 2002, then a rebound from 2003 forward, all the while with ORV's present and closings to ORV's and pedestrians non-existent in relative terms. Again, 2009 saw a decline.
Thus, when Derb claims as quoted above, that SELC and their allies are using "science" to justify their positions, they lie. Not only is the historical data inconclusive, no real scientist would use a data stream covering one year (the difference in 2007 and 2008). Given the pre-ORV diversity in the numbers cited for the affected species, the 2008 increases are statistically insignificant.
Further, no real scientist would exclude historical data and omit measurements of standard deviations and means in the data range--things even a college freshman learns in introductory statistics courses. Nor does science leave out the concept of controls and control groups. These measurements tell us, over time, what the expected normal range of species breeding success would be, what constitutes an outlier, and how one can determine if a trend is significant, ongoing, or simply within the random movement of the norm. And controls are always needed to evaluate the success of any scientific observation. In nature, animal species often experience localized and range-wide deviations in breeding success. For example, what if plovers experienced breeding success across their range in 2008? What about turtles? If they did, it would be impossible to claim the ORV ban contributed to the slight increases in 2008. Also, in periods of decline, such as 2002 for the Hatteras population of Piping Plovers, what were the results in other areas of the birds breeding range; especially areas where ORV traffic was never present. If the declines occurred across the breeding range, than the presence of ORV's cannot be the primary factor affecting the bird's success rate in mating or fledgling numbers.
Here are some 2009 numbers to contemplate when we, as taxpayers and residents consider the revenues lost, the tourists inconvenienced, the legal expenses billed to taxpayers.
|
| ||||||||||
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| PipiPiping Plover (PIPL) Summary: | | | | | | | | | ||
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Total Nests to Date | Total Pairs to Date | Active Nests | Total Nests Hatched | Total Nests Lost | Total Eggs | Total Eggs Hatched | Unfledged Chicks | Lost Chicks | Fledged Chicks |
| As of 8/7/2009 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 19 | 0 | 13 | 6 |
| As of 08/6/2008 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 5 | ? | 22 | 0 | 15 | 7 |
| Full Year 2008 | 13 | 11 | n\a | 8 | 5 | 43 | 22 | n\a | 15 | 7 |
| | | |||||||||
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| AmAmerican Oystercatchers (AMOY) Summary: (includes | | | | | ||||||
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Total Nests to Date | Active Nests | Nests Hatched | Nests Lost | Total Chicks Hatched | Unfledged Chicks | Chicks Lost | Fledged Chicks | | |
| As of 8/7/2009 | 31 | 0 | 15 | 16 | 31 | 2 | 17 | 12 | | |
| As of 8/6/2008 | 32 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 15 | | |
| Full Year 2008 | 32 | n\a | 13 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 17 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| SeaSea Turtle Summary: | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Nests | Digs | False Crawls | | Ratio of False Crawls to Nests | | | | | |
| As of 8/7/2009 | 95 | 0 | 98 | | 1.03:1 | | | | | |
| As of 8/6/2008 | 101 | 1 | 92 | | 0.91:1 | | | | | |
| Full Year 2008 | 112 | 0 | 103 | | .92:1 | | | | | |
| | Source is page 6 of CHNS 2008 Sea Turtle Annual Report | | | | | | ||||
And, your odds if a wild predator (note "removal" can and often does mean "killed")
| | |||||||
| | | | | | | ||
| | 2002-2007 | 2007 | | | | ||
| | Wildlife | NPS Resource | | | | ||
| | Services | Mgt. Staff | 2008 | 2009 | Totals | ||
| Species | | | | | | ||
| Feral Dog | 1 | 0 | 0 | | 1 | ||
| Feral Cat | 26 | 38 | 53 | | 117 | ||
| Raccoon | 133 | 101 | 77 | | 311 | ||
| Mink | 0 | 1 | 31 | | 32 | ||
| Opossum | 46 | 57 | 60 | | 163 | ||
| Muskrat | 0 | 1 | 1 | | 2 | ||
| Otter | 0 | 2 | 5 | | 7 | ||
| Grey Fox | 30 | 3 | 6 | | 39 | ||
| Red Fox | 70 | 6 | 9 | | 85 | ||
| Nutria | 0 | 23 | 49 | | 72 | ||
| | | | | | | ||
| Totals | 305 | 232 | 291 | ? | 828 | ||
| | | | | | | ||
| Source: 2007 & 2008 CHNS Piping Plover annual reports | | | | ||||
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Saturday, November 14, 2009
Saturday's Storm Effects
Kitty Hawk, among other places (I haven't been to South Nags Head yet, nor Rodanthe, where houses were lost) took it on the chin. While some of this is ocean over wash, most of the water is storm water runoff and huge ponding. At sea level, water has nowhere to go. This is a chronic problem in Kitty Hawk. As an aside, since we are all on sand-filtered septic systems for the most part, if a septic field has standing water over it such as this, it is likely the entire ground is saturated and the septic field won't drain. In fact, some of its by-product will rise to the surface.
No commentary on these; but as usual, click on them for full views.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Thursday, November 12, 2009
With A View To A New Coffee Shop
One has to admire the entrepreneurial spirit on the Outer Banks. Especially in a down economy. But Dare County is by and large an entrepreneurial community, which is yet another reason why its fun to live and do business here.
Some time ago I profiled Ashley Barnes, the extraordinary individual who crafted the coffee blends for the Front Porch. When that restaurant moved to new digs in Nags Head, I wondered what would replace the old unit. I was pleasantly surprised to learn that Ashley had decided to run her own shop and take over the newly vacated spot of her former employer.
Just like the Front Porch is different than Starbucks (in a positive way) relative to product, decor, and ambiance, Ashley's Morning View is different than her old stomping grounds. The first thought that comes to mind is cozy--living room, Central Perk cozy. Except no Phoebe singing "Smelly Cat". And more mauve.
Nifty beverages including Old School soda pop. Even Radar O'Reilly would be happy as Nehi grape is among the selections.
Fun crowd...
Tiki Bar counter
Neat art....
And best of all...all of the house blends are available for sale, marking yet another place to buy OBX unique holiday gifts! Located in Nags Head in the MP 10.5 vicinity--west side of the bypass just south of RBC Bank in the same strip center as Forbes Candy and L'il Grass Shack. Thanks to Woodduck's comment for pointing out this glaring omission in my post.
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